As early voting begins in Texas, Trump, Cruz lead in latest Texas polls

(The Center Square) – As early voting began Monday in Texas, two new Texas-based polls show former President Donald Trump and incumbent U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz are ahead.

Trump and Cruz lead their Democratic opponents, Vice President Kamala Harris and U.S. Rep. Collin Allred, D-Dallas, respectively, by five points, 51% to 46%, according to a new University of Texas Politics Project poll. They are also ahead by five and four points, respectively, in a new University of Houston Hobby School of Public Affairs poll.

In both polls, registered and likely voters said the economy and being worse off financially today than they were four years ago are top concerns. They also said the country was “heading off on the wrong track.”

According to the UT/TPP poll, the most important national issues voters identified are inflation/rising prices, the economy and immigration. The most important issues facing Texas are immigration, border security and inflation/rising prices.

A majority of registered voters polled, 53%, said they disapprove of the job President Joe Biden is doing as president compared to 37% who said they approve, according to the UT/TPP poll.

By contrast, 51% said they approve of the job Gov. Greg Abbott is doing. The Texas governor has a higher approval rating than others asked about in state government. Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick’s approval rating is 39%, followed by Attorney General Ken Paxton’s 36% and House Speaker Dade Phelan’s 21%, according to the UT/TPP poll.

A larger majority, 63%, said the country was “headed off on the wrong track.” Congress has only a 21% approval rating among Texas registered voters polled.

A majority polled also said the economy and their families’ economic conditions were worse off under the Biden-Harris administration.

Among the issues most important to voters in the UH Hobby poll, 66% cited the economy, 50% said immigration and border security, and 39% said the future of U.S. democracy.

The majority polled, 44%, said their “personal financial situation is worse today than it was four years ago;” 62% said “the United States is on the wrong track.”

When it comes to the Senate race, 3% remain undecided and 1% said they are voting for the Libertarian Party candidate, Ted Brown.

Texas “leans Republican” in November the UH Hobby school says.

“Trump has made significant inroads with Latino voters, nationally and in Texas,” Renée Cross, researcher and senior executive director of the Hobby School, said. “We found that 48% of Texas Latinos support Trump, while 47% plan to vote for Harris. That’s a major shift for a group that has traditionally leaned Democratic. Added to Trump’s strength with men, white voters, older voters and those without a college education, it’s clear that Texas remains solidly Republican.”

The margin of Harris’ lead with women, Black and young voters “are too small to offset Trump’s lead among traditional Republican constituencies,” Mark Jones, political science fellow at Rice University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy and senior research fellow at the Hobby School, said.

The UH poll also notes that “34% of Harris voters said their vote is primarily a vote against Trump; 20% of Trump voters said the same about Harris.”

The UT/TPP poll was conducted among 1,200 registered voters between Oct. 2 and 10 and has a margin of error of 2.83%. The UH Hobby poll was conducted online among 1,329 YouGov respondents statewide in English and Spanish between Sept. 26 and Oct. 10. The survey includes an oversample of Harris County voters and has a margin of error of 2.69%.

Early voting runs through Friday, Nov. 1. Election Day is Tuesday, Nov. 5.

The Texas Secretary of State’s Office has published voting information by county.